Significant developments emerged on the fifth day of missing record producer Christian Irwin, who fled his home last Sunday night under what can only be described as bizarre circumstances.

Major Theories on the Disappearance

Since it is unknown what has happened to Christian, investigators are trying to fit what is known into several possible theories including:

• Internet scam theory
• Medical confusion theory
• Staged disappearance theory

Sheriff’s investigators are downplaying the Internet scam theory. While they do believe that Christian was indeed involved with a “Nigerian Internet scam,” at this point there is no clear connection to his disappearance.

For the first time a new theory was discussed publicly: the medical confusion theory. Confusion or some unknown medical problem may have played a role in the incident and put him in a state where he fell or injured himself. Capt. Ray Peavy of the sheriff’s homicide unit:

“He obviously felt threatened. Whether that was real or imagined is impossible for us to know.”

Christian’s relatives, meanwhile, said they were dubious about the medical theory and that Irwin had behaved normally with friends before Sunday’s incident. Baseless panic does not fit with his personality, his sister said.
At this point, no one has discussed the possibility of it being a staged disappearance though it is almost certain that Sheriff’s investigators are not precluding this possibility either.

Newly Released Facts

As earlier reported, the $50,000 check Irwin received as part of the scam was a forgery. Nonetheless, the scammers had apparently demanded repayment.

A previously unreported 911 call was received around the time of his reported flight. Police are investigating whether one call may have come from Christian.

It was previously reported that during Christian ’s frantic cell phone calls he had said his pursuers may have been people drawn to him by “the money” or “the e-mail.” Today we learned that Irwin had also said that his pursuers were possibly connected to his father, who died in March.

Perhaps most importantly, we learned that a noisy party was in full swing at a neighboring house about the time of Christian’s flight. Cars were roaring in and out, and presumably dogs were barking.

What the New Facts Tell Us

Independent Sources had already written about the problems with the Internet Scam theory so we are not surprised that it is being discounted as a direct cause of the disappearance. It doesn’t fit the facts and violence in these cases is almost unheard of.

If the newly announced 911 call was from Christian, it would answer the puzzling question why he didn’t call 911 while “running for his life.”

We know that Christian was confused at the time of the phone calls. With today’s knowledge that there was a loud party going on, it is possible that he confused the comings and goings of party-goers with assailants and this is what set him off. We also now know that even during his frantic calls to his friend that he was at a loss to explain who was chasing him. He even threw out the possibility that it was somehow tied to his father. This means that it is unlikely that there was a discussion or other meaningful interaction with assailants before he headed down the ravine; otherwise he would know why they were there and what they were after.

As we have said, developments are changing this story daily. However, thus far, “medical confusion” answers more questions than any of the competing theories.

What is expected to happen today

Search and rescue teams will resume the search this morning in the rugged canyons around his last known sighting at 525 South Topanga Canyon Blvd.

Click here to access all of Independent Sources postings on the disappearance of Christian Irwin.

This entry was posted on Friday, August 26th, 2005 at 9:47 am by Insider and is filed under Big Thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.