Tomorrow’s Economist (here; sub req’d) features a look at Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s fortunes, and concludes that things may not be as bad as the poll numbers indicate:

…There are certainly two reasons for supposing that the positive-thinking governor is more in touch with reality than his gloomy electors. First, California is hardly on the wrong track. Its economy is expanding at an annual rate of almost 4%; unemployment, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, should this year average 5.3%, appreciably down from last year’s 6.2%; and the aerospace, hi-tech and tourism industries are all looking healthy. The big risk is that outrageously high house prices will collapse, and consumer confidence with them—but so far that bubble shows few signs of bursting.

Second, Mr Schwarzenegger, even in his current bruised state, remains a much more powerful force than anything the Democrats can muster. …

… Since most of California has yet to wake up to the coming election, today’s opinion polls need to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Keep in mind, too, that the governor is a proven salesman (how else did Conan the Barbarian make his millions?) and that no one has yet made money betting against him. But he has a lot of work to do.

Any poll taken a sixteen months before an election is more of an exercise in getting media attention than a reflection of the voting intentions of the electorate. In fact, nothing in the governor’s race will matter until after Labor Day 2006.

But that won’t stop us from writing about it!

Technorati Tags: California, 2006 Election, Schwarzenegger

This entry was posted on Thursday, August 4th, 2005 at 10:44 am by A Senior Administration Official and is filed under California Schemin'. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.