After watching this morning’s stage (Stage 14, Saturday, July 16) I think the final podium in Paris will shake out like this:

1. Armstrong: riding a masterful race in complete control.  Lance is the only person trying to win this thing, the other contenders are racing for 2nd (except for perhaps Vino, whose kamikaze tactics are exciting to watch but keep pushing him further down the GC).  He will win tomorrow’s epic stage to Pla-d’Adet, the final mountain-top finish of his professional cycling career.

2. Ullrich: getting stronger as the race goes on and will have a blazing last ITT, but ever the bridesmaid and never the bride.  You’d think his coach and directeur sportif could figure out how to deliver Ullrich fully fit to the race start after all these years?

3. Leipheimer: racing conservatively and consistently, his patience will pay off when he just pips by Basso in the final ITT.  Will surprise a lot of people when he moves into the top three as he’s been in stealth mode since the start.

Basso will arrive in Paris just out of the money with Landis not far behind (3 Yanks in the Top Five says I).  ‘Chicken,’ (Rasmussen) the revelation of the Alps, will have to fight to stay in the Top Ten GC (he’ll lose 6 minutes in the final ITT) but will keep the clown jersey.

Tomorrow’s ‘Queen Stage’ in the Pyrénées could blow apart the race.  Anything can happen in a stage that epic.  Someone having a bad day could lose massive amounts of time.  Armstrong was first on this mountain in 2001 and something tells me he won’t be the one having a bad day mañana.

WEIRD

One day Lance seems to be abandoned by his teammates and on the next day Discovery are supremely dominant.  Is this by accident or design?  A week ago Lance found himself all alone on a routine big ring climb, a fact which alarmed almost every pundit but was dismissed as a non-event by yours truly.  Over the bigger mountains that the tour traversed on the following days the Blue Train ran the show (Hincapie was particularly impressive, besting many celebrated pure climbers).  Today, as he was a week ago on the Col de la Schlucht, Lance was sans-teammates a long way from the finish.  Why?  Discovery are certainly strong enough to escort Armstrong to the foot of the final climb (any final climb), at the very least.

I originally thought last Saturday’s situation was a deliberate bluff by Team Disco.  I’ve since reconsidered and now think that Armstrong and Bruyneel pegged that stage as non-critical and had the Blue Train in cruise mode in order to save their legs for the following Tuesday’s big climb to Courchevel.  If true, then perhaps Lance saved his team today for tomorrow’s crossing of four first category climbs before finishing on a super-steep above category finale.  I think Lance long ago decided he wanted to win this year’s toughest stage–tomorrow’s–as well as the final ITT a week from today.  The yellow jersey, the opening ITT, the TTT, the toughest mountain stage and the closing ITT: sounds like Lance’s July ‘to do’ list to me.

ALSO WEIRD

 Is it just me or are the T-Mobile guys racing against each other as much as they’re riding against other teams?  As expected, the T-Mob strategy, if in fact they have a strategy, is a complete disaster.

IT’S A SHAME…

 …that American Chris Horner, racing his first TdF (actually, his first grand tour) this year at age 34, didn’t hook up with a nurturing team like Postal/Discovery years ago and build his Euro racing chops over a period of years.  Chris is a smart and fit rider who I think has a shot at a stage win next week but is probably too old to develop into a major grand tour contender.  Horner bagged today’s climbing, clearly recovering from yesterday’s long break (where he stayed away until nearly the last second) and likely saving something for the post- Pyrénées stages whose elevation profiles seem breakaway-friendly.  (Botero also bagged today’s climbing, he’s also one to watch for a stage win before Paris.)

FRENCH RIDER UPDATE

David Moncoutié won the flatish Bastille Day stage and Christophe Moreau is slipping down the GC ranks.  That’s as good as it gets for the Frenchies this year.

SPAIN DOING ALMOST AS BADLY AS FRANCE

Where is the Spanish Armada now that the race is in the Pyrenees?  Iban Mayo, Joseba Beloki and Roberto Heras are climbing like girls.  I didn’t see the usual army of orange-shirted Basque fans lining today’s climbs.  Maybe the Spanish climbers will show us something tomorrow as the stage crosses into Spain for a few km, but probably not.

Luke

For Independent Sources other postings on Le Tour click here and for a great blog on Le Tour go to TdFBlog

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This entry was posted on Saturday, July 16th, 2005 at 5:31 pm by Luke the Drifter and is filed under Cycling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.