Luke’s Tour de France Pre-Race Analysis
A little off topic for us, but this year’s Tour de France promises to be an epic race as well as the last TdF for the great(est) American cyclist Lance Armstrong. So courtesy of our Independent Sources’ occasional contributor, Luke the Drifter, we bring you his pre-race analysis:
With regard to Jan Ullrich, no one should be 100% race fit two weeks before the tour. Not even on day one. If you peak before the race, even days, you’re likely to be sick by week 3 (peak fitness = hammered immune system). You want to start peaking when the race hits the mountains, typically in the 2nd week. Therefore highly predictable that Herr Ullrich was not totally on form in Switzerland.
He looked quite good, however. A non-chubby Ullrich is always a threat, however Lance Armstrong and his team always run tactical circles around Jan and his team. If Ullrich is riding poorly, T-mobile may ride for Vinokourov instead. Watch out for Ivan Basso in the mountains. He’s become a better TTer this year, but probably is not yet a ‘complete rider’ on the order of Armstrong. He’ll be my TdF favorite in the sans-Armstrong ‘06 race. My TdF dark horse is Levi Leipheimer, a definite podium threat but not strong enough to beat Armstrong in a grand tour. No one can beat an on-form Armstrong (and his superfit and well-rehearsed team) over a grand tour. My Top 5 prediction:
- Armstrong
- Basso
- Ullrich
- Leipheimer
- Vinokourov
I’m not expecting much from the Spanish riders this year other than mountain stage wins, they all get killed in the TTs and also have trouble maintaining form over 3 weeks.
Another American, and, like Leipheimer, another U.S. Postal vet, is Floyd Landis. Team leader for Phonak but likely just short of a podium threat but likely Top 10. 3 Americans in the Top 10 will be amazing and seems likely. A big bonus — there won’t be 3 Frenchmen in the Top 10, might not even be Frenchmen in the Top 10. French people as usual will go bananas over some minor stage win but the French riders will have long bid adieu to the G.C. by the time the tour hits gay Paris.
My favorite cycling web site is www.cyclingnews.com, I will have their live web coverage window open on my desktop every day of the tour.
Luke
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June 28th, 2005 at 12:37 pm
Basso is getting more undeserved hype than any cyclist since Pee Wee Herman. Look for Ivan to finish in the middle of the pack. As for darkhorses, don’t overlook David Sommers, winner of The Hell of the West race. Also, watch out for HOTW runners up Barry “The Animal” Muzzin and Sergei Belov.
June 30th, 2005 at 12:40 pm
Dude: did you not see Basso crusing alongside Armstrong in the mountains last year after everyone else had been dropped? Cappuccino Boy can climb.
Getting ready for three weeks of making my coworkers think I’m working while I’m following le Tour.
Luke